Israeli Election Circus 2020 FINAL RESULTS: Arab Voters Save the Day.

In September, after Bibi and his hard-right coalition suffered a setback, I wrote prematurely that his political days are likely over.

But following yet another stalemate (the September elections themselves were a do-over after April 2019’s elections produced a stalemate), and buoyed by hermetic loyalty from all coalition partners - a loyalty exceeding even GOP fealty to Drumpf - Bibi survived another day to force a 3rd election in 11 months.

Then on Monday night, it was most of the media’s turn to prematurely declare Bibi the winner. Indeed, his party seems to have jumped 4-5 seats (4 at final count), but the all-important 61-seat majority coalition was not quite there even in the first exit polls. The media chatter turned to Bibi trying to pick off defectors from the opposition to cobble together his “inevitable” coalition... but when the dust settled a couple of days later, it became clear that he is quite a bit short with 58 seats out of 120. More than September’s 55, but still ironically less than April’s 60.

This red-zone defensive feat wasn’t thanks to his direct head-to-head opponents, the ridiculous center-right hodge-podge I aptly described a year ago as 3 Super-Generals and a Clown. They blew it in every possible way this cycle, evidently losing a couple of seats directly to Likud, and making up for them only by cannibalizing their decimated partners. It was certainly not thanks to those partners — the entire Zionist centre-left, plus a few ringers, who squatted together in a single List that fell to a pitiful 7 seats (vs. 6+5 in September, and vs. 56 seats in 1992).

No, it was the Arab-led Joint List that saved the day, with a record-shattering 15 seats (up from 13 in September). They are the ones who have brought in new voters and a ray of hope. Compared to 470k voters in September, on Monday 580k citizens voted for the Joint, 560k of them apparently Arab and Druze. Many of them probably hadn’t voted for decades, or ever. And the cherry on top is that both #14 and #15 are women (and very impressive ones of course), for a total of 4 women out of 15. Not quite parity yet, but helping set a new election record of 30 women out of 120.

And now, the rest of the opposition which has turned a cold shoulder towards their Arab comrades (putting it mildly), are suddenly warming up to them again.

What will happen now? I won’t state anything prematurely this time. Actually, against my natural tendency I will end here.

For behind-the-scenes insight on the Joint List’s amazing feat, read this great article by Palestinian-Israeli social worker, organizer, fearless feminist, and awesome journalist Samah Salaime:

The Joint List’s Triumph over Hate

Also, don’t forget to read the salmon below for the broader and more accurate context.

Since 1967, Israel has controlled the lives of the Palestinian people living in East Jerusalem, West Bank, and Gaza, without giving them citizenship; the vast majority have been forced to live as stateless, rightless subjects under military rule. Even now, as Occupation-tolerant advocates often deny and discount this basic reality (or are shamefully ignorant of it), Israel controls the freedom of movement of these territories' residents, in particular their ability to go abroad and return; controls their residency status; their airspace, currency, water supply, fuel supply, most of their electricity, and their ability to import and export products. All the while, deeply exploiting their day labor and natural resources — and further controlling their social and intimate lives via a secret police that extorts an extensive network of collaborators. THIS IS A VERY PARTIAL LIST.

This Occupation regime has continued unabated for nearly 52 53 out of the Israeli parliament’s 70 71 years of existence, covering the last 14 15 16 17 out of Israel's 20 21 22 23 general elections. Apart from a couple of elections in the 1980s-90s, no major Israeli party has campaigned on ending it.

As long as this continues,  the Israeli elections cannot be considered really democratic. That said, elections sometimes open the door to the Law of Unintended Consequences, in a good way.

Besides, it’s one of the world's most entertaining electoral circuses. So I'm writing this series.