Some of you remember, eons ago, that Israel was going through a Groundhog Day of repeated national elections with inconclusive results. I chronicled them here under the “Israeli Election Circus” diary series. The last of these, shortly after March 2’s elections — the 3rd in 11 months — is titled “Israeli Election Circus 2020 FINAL RESULTS: Arab Voters Save the Day.” Just like in September 2019, when PM Bibi Netanyahu had lost ground and seemed on his last legs, I once again celebrated too soon.
True, historic turnout among Arab-Israeli voters (or Palestinian-Israeli, roughly half of that community prefers to be identified in this manner) had offset Bibi’s renewed gains among the Jewish-Israeli majority. His hard-right and Ultra-Orthodox bloc was stopped at 58 of 120 seats. Another stalemate, it seemed. The following week, Israel’s attorney general handed down a triple indictment for corruption against Bibi. Parties ostensibly controlling the other 62 seats started planning for a quick legislative session that would outlaw someone with such indictments forming a government. Perhaps Bibi’s party was not defeated, but at least he’d be gotten rid of.
But then, the leader of the opposition’s main electoral List, the guy whom my parents voted for to be PM instead of Bibi - ex-general Benny Gantz - buckled under and gave it all away. Citing the need to unite in the face of Covid-19, he split his List down the middle and took half with him, joining Bibi as a fifth wheel, and enabling him to form yet another government after 11 consecutive years in power.
Meanwhile, my workplace here around Seattle is head over heels into pandemic response support, plus I teach evenings during spring quarter. Except for reporting on one march in early June, I literally didn’t have a second to spare on writing diaries.
But deterioration in Israel-Palestine has happened nonstop since 2000, and hasn’t stopped during my diary hiatus. Tomorrow, Bibi is determined to cash in on the election gift that Drumpf and Jared gave him in late January, when they released their ridiculous, criminal “Piece Plan”. This “plan” signaled an unprecedented American go-ahead for formal annexation of parts of the West Bank.
Successive US and Western governments have quietly lived with, and provided the effective support and cover for, creeping Israeli annexation of the West Bank. But the bright red line was to keep it unofficial, within the realm of “plausible deniability”. Along come Drumpf and his Wunderkind son-in-law, and cross it.
I have no doubt this illegal gift had helped Bibi score well in March’s election. Most Israelis don’t particularly like Bibi; his main selling point is competence. He’s seen as adept at scoring diplomatic victories and beating away diplomatic threats, by whatever means necessary. The “Piece Plan” was Exhibit A for that.
Bibi wanted to immediately annex in February, turning the gift into a complete campaign spectacle. Jared et al. scrambled to explain to him that this is more of a rhetorical crossing (the “Plan” calls for annexation only as part of some sort of agreement, even though Palestinians were not really consulted in its preparation). So Bibi backed off for the time being. But he did get the feckless Gantz, already during the campaign, to voice feeble support.
Now, Bibi wants to move forward with annexation on July 1. That’s tomorrow. Originally he wanted to annex much of the green “sea” engulfing the Palestinian Bantustans inside the West Bank in the map above. Diplomatic noise, mostly from Europe, as well as warnings from Israel’s own national security establishment, have caused him to scale back his plans. But he’s keeping all cards very close to his chest. It’s supposed to happen tomorrow, but there are only hints, rumors, and leaks regarding what would be annexed. Whatever the step, no one really knows how intense the Occupied Palestinian public’s reaction will be. But they are not known for sitting on their hands in response to such provocations. And this is far more than a mere provocation.
Bibi seems determined, however. He doesn’t want his record-breaking long tenure to be remembered only for its length and his personal corruption. He wants to go down in history not as the first PM to cling to his seat even as he’s indicted to corruption — but as the first PM to annex territories since Begin annexed the Golan in 1980. And he also knows that once Drumpf is gone, this will be impossible.
Infuriatingly, on Israel’s mainstream news sites, this entire story is taking a distant 4th place, after Covid-19, various other antics of Bibi, and random domestic scandals.
As to Covid-19: Israel’s response to the first wave was relatively swift and effective. Bibi who put his face front and center on it, arguably managed to gain from that as well in March’s election, which took place a few weeks into the first wave.
By late April, new cases came down to ~10/day. By mid-May, all P-12 schools in Israel reopened with only symbolic restrictions, and everyone went back to crowding happily everywhere, as people around the Mediterranean love to do.
Ten days later, a huge “superspreader” type outbreak was found in the Jerusalem high school where I spent 9th-10th grade. Bibi et al. stayed the course. Soon, outbreaks popped up far and wide. Ignoring the original “red lines” they have set for re-closing, Bibi et al. still stayed the course, now allowing also nightlife, weddings, everything. Yesterday ~700 new cases were detected, highest since April 2 and third-highest ever. Arguably, Israel has become the world’s first country to stop a 1st Covid-19 wave, then face a legit full-amplitude 2nd wave. All within the space of several weeks. And the government? Yesterday they restricted weddings to 250 participants, as well as a few other meaningless steps. The entire Cabinet rose up in arms against the health minister who feebly lobbied for more. And most of the public is in denial.
On Sunday, Gantz feebly suggested that “this government was set up for Coronavirus, we should focus on Coronavirus and not other matters”, hinting that tomorrow’s annexation should be postponed. Bibi’s response: “Your party doesn’t have a say on the annexation either way. This is a matter of negotiations between me and the Americans.”
But will Bibi blink at the last moment after all? This, too, he’s done before.
To be continued. This never-ending evil circus.
---— 10:10 AM PDT Update: Bibi Blinked!
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Tuesday, following a meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump’s Middle East envoy, that his government “will keep working” on the issue of West Bank annexation “in the coming days,” hinting that it will miss a July 1 target date Netanyahu himself set.
Ostensibly “taking a rain check”, but if the world amps up the pressure this will end up not happening. So let’s keep it up. Do write or call your closest Israeli consulate or embassy, and let them know your thoughts.
Or better yet, write all of them.