We moved here in 2002, so this is the 5th Prez election I’m observing up close.
In every single one, come late August or early September - usually around the R Convention - an “R Candidate is Winning/Invincible” wave takes over most of the media - from radical left through to Faux News. And from there, into the public mind.
Details vary, but the song remains the same:
- “R is finding some ingenious/brilliant way to resonate/connect, they drive home an effective message, dominates the narrative”, etc. etc.
- “D is uninspiring, using the wrong strategy, losing ground, Dems are in Dis Array”, etc. etc.
Every single time, this is stated with utmost certainty and confidence.
And every single time, all those “analysts” who manage to “observe” the exact same thing at exact the same stage in every campaign — just like some dead Grandfather Clock — use it to grind their little personal axes: D should pander more to center-right, or the Dem party is toast and it’s time for a revolutionary socialist party, or my candidate should have been nominated and I Told You So,…. you get the idea.
I call BULLSHIT. A big, fat, steaming pile of bullshit.
All that’s happening is
- The Rs just had their convention, and — random media fact-checkers notwithstanding — usually the media are all too happy to stenograph much of it, so they’re getting some bump
- In August usually not much of substance happens, it’s all process — and so the media can engage in its two favorite political pastimes: context-free horserace coverage, and voluntary massive NRDD (Normalize the Republican, Demonize the Democrat).
But, eventually September comes around and more actual stuff starts happening again, as well as the two candidates face each other directly in debates.
Even in the two campaigns I witnessed when the R eventually became President (2004 and 2016), the D candidate won the dynamics for most of September-October. Hillary would have been President, but for John Comey and the ridiculously media response to his letter. Don’t take my word for it: 538 called it both in real time, and post-mortem(see their plot of media coverage in the second story; Comey/email dominated the news for an unbelievable 7 of the last 11 days before the election).
Kerry 2004’s story isn’t as clear-cut: he did lose the popular vote (although not by much, and the deciding state — Ohio — went by 2%). But he faced a wartime president enjoying near-universal support from 9/11 to spring 2004. Arriving as the underdog, he trounced Bush in the first debate, but unfortunately went too easy on him on the subsequent two — at a time when debates still mattered far more than they do now. Yet who knows, Kerry too might have won if not for Bin Laden releasing a tape on October 29, “endorsing” Kerry.
And of course, the other two elections were won by Obama.
Bottom line: at the end of August, nothing is lost. Furthermore, we don’t even know the dynamics of the two months ahead of us, and whether it’s even going to be close — and if it’s close, what might win or lose it.
So please, flush all those know-it-all, chicken-little messaging down the toilet.
Instead, focus on helping voter registration and GOTV.
Here’s Yosef52’s latest list of action links.
And here’s the ActBlue link to donate to a list curated and endorsed by Daily Kos, of grassroots organizations “working to register, educate, count, protect, empower, and mobilize frontline communities” in 5 swing states.
These 5 states don’t include Florida. So here’s perhaps my favorite link: We Got the Vote, a Florida organization founded and led by a returning citizen, to help pay those onerous fines so that Florida citizens returning to society from prison, can vote again.
remember!
- There’s way more of us than of them.
- Republicans have nothing to run on except ignorance, hate, and fear.
- We have the inspiring, reality-based, science-based, inclusive solutions that resonate far more with most Americans.
- The mainstream media narrative will generally be against us. Year-round, and particularly come election time. Don’t let it despair you.
- Our candidate is up by a friggin’ 9% in the national polls. Yes, it’s not enough. On the merits, Trump should have been hovering around 10% support now, not >40%. Bt still, we’re not the ones having to play catch-up, and don’t let the media make you feel this way.
Yes, Rs have perfected the art of running on ignorance, hate and fear — but see above: there’s way more of us than of them. And there will be even more.
GOTV GOTV GOTV.
Never give up.
Happy Monday.