This is the 4th (and likely next-to-last) diary in a series on the current state of electric vehicles (EVs), focusing on the US, that started last month. Diaries #1 and #2 dealt with environmental issues.
Today's diary was split off the third after it became too long to my taste (and probably yours:). Together they deal with market and consumer issues.
The main message of this diary-pair is that the reality is far better than what conventional wisdom would have you believe.
We've seen this in other fields: CW has such a hold on pundits' minds, that they are willing to deny reality to its face long after the CW had been debunked. In the EV case, the CW has been that this is a "zombie technology" unworthy of Prime Time - not now, probably not ever. Any sign of life from EVs has been dismissed as artificial, irrelevant to ordinary people, or a sign of desperation. Any negative sign has been seized upon as a treasure: the most hillarious example was the NYT quoting an "expert" proclaiming "a stake in the heart of electric vehicles" because of a viral video of a single Tesla Model S that caught fire following an accident, after over half a billion cumulative EV miles on the road.
Things are not perfectly rosy. But if you'd like my bottom line, it is this:
EVs are very close now, perhaps a single year away, from attaining the critical mass and momentum needed to irreversibly affect the automotive-market economy. Stuff might still happen. In particular, if the wingnuts succeed in throwing us into a second Great Recession, both oil prices and consumer appetite for novel products will plummet. But if things continue on the trajectory they've taken since, say, mid-2012 - then EVs are looking good. Really good. Early-Hybrid vs. Early-EV market share compared, with each class' "Year 1" as reference. EV 2013 numbers are through Q3.Today's serving will deal with EVs' business viability for automakers, and with their value for consumers.
