Finally, the promised sequel to Part 1 is here. These two diaries are a quick, (humbly) not-too-shabby “Current Best-Value EV Options” consumer guide.
HOWEVER. My main message is in the title: switching to an EV has become a highly effective act of resistance.
The new virulent, climate-denying, environment-devouring, oil-dominated, reactionary Federal regime arrives precisely when the EV market starts offering an unprecedentedly broad and attractive range of entry options. Decision-makers in the US and around the world are looking at EV sales numbers very closely:
Most major automakers can quickly switch more production capacity to their EV product lines, in response to demand signals from the market — or at the very least, they have contingency plans for accelerating the launch of new EV models, given a sustained demand spike. Some auto execs, recently led by Ford CEO, prefer to lie with a straight face, claiming “there’s no demand for EVs”. (r-i-g-h-t; that’s why 400,000 people each paid $1k last year, just for a spot in the queue for an EV that hasn’t even entered production yet). As you can see in the headline chart, they are a diminishing minority. But you can also help prove them wrong in a direct way. The bottom line: at some point not too far in the future, EVs will help cause a “Peak Oil Demand” moment of sorts: when the number of gas cars taken off the road exceeds the number of added new gas cars, we will know that things can only go downhill from there for oil, regardless of what corrupt politicians say or do. It will be a watershed moment. You can trust the Oiligarchy and its lackeys in the political/media system, not only to try and postpone that moment and its aftermath, but to prevent any mention or discussion of them. But global CO2 levels cannot afford any more delays. And you can help bring that moment sooner — directly. About 400,000 people each paid a $1,000 deposit, some of them after waiting in line overnight, for a place in the queue for the mid-market Tesla Model 3, due in the market (optimistically) later this year in small quantities, and next year in massive quantities. The Model 3 is *not* one of the 5 new options presented in this diary.To boot, and highly relevant for this diary that presents only new-car purchase options, for 2017 the Federal EV-purchase tax rebate of up to $7,500 is almost certainly safe. After that, it’s a long story… but no one’s sure.
So… I said it last time, I’ll keep saying it:
For most car owners reading this, and for most progressive car owners in general, it is imperative to seriously consider switching an EV over the coming months. Even if you were not planning on replacing a car this year. And if you’re already an EV driver, 2017 is *the* year to EV-angelize in your social circles. Bigly. |
Diary 1 (thank you, Rescue Rangers!) explored low-budget EV options. Really low-budget; if you haven’t already, do check them out! This second and last diary will cover 5 really amazing mid-market EV options, 4 of them brand-new for 2017, and all of them smack in the mainstream of the auto market.
But before that, a few disclaimers, to try and minimize thread waste:
This is still not for everyone. For example, if you live on a farm looking to replace your 4-ton pickup truck, then sorry, the EV wave will reach you only in a decade or so. Right now, the only big-vehicle class seeing massive EV action is buses — which is great, btw. So writing 5 comments about why EVs are not for you specifically, is not helpful (25 comments, even less helpful). There was confusion in Part 1’s comments regarding charging stations. The best, by far most common “charging station” is your home. If you have access just to a 110V/15A outlet (including, e.g., in an apartment-building parking lot), even via an extension cord (make it 12-gauge or thicker) — then this outlet is good for at least a 25-40 mile “refill” every weeknight, enough for most people’s commute. That’s what we do >95% of the time. For those with no charging access at home/work, Quick-Charging (QC) described in Part 1 can be a great option. Or possibly, a couple of safely and conveniently located and free/low-cost regular charging stations near your home. Check out plugshare.com to explore what’s around you. Last but not least: if you hate EVs, whether because they are not environmental enough for your taste, or because you just can’t help yourself — please stay away. Why? Because these are precisely the site’s rules:If people want to hang out and talk about X, and you are anti-X, then either be on your bestest of best behavior or just stay away.
Still with me? Great. Here goes.
Terminology reminder: BEV (“battery-electric vehicle”) is the acronym for cars that run *only* on electrons. A PHEV (“plug-in-hybrid electric vehicle”) can run on electrons, or on another fuel (right now gas is almost exclusively the “other fuel”). ICE (“internal combustion engine”) is what we call gas/diesel cars.
Amazing. 1. The Big Bang: Chevy Bolt BEV.Claim to Fame: First Mid-Market 200-Mile BEV in the Western World.
EPA Range: 238 miles. Effective* MSRP: $30-35k or less**
[Yup, the Bolt is not really the first of its kind in the entire world, b/c China has had roughly equivalent options for a while now. But they are not available elsewhere.]
If you had asked 3 years ago, which automaker will be the first to offer a family-friendly 200-mile BEV in the West at mid-market prices, the smart money was on Nissan (maker of the world’s #1 selling EV) or Tesla (the only one in the West actually making a 200-mile BEV, albeit for the luxury market). After them, maybe Ford or VW. GM, despite its decent efforts with the Volt PHEV (which by 2014 were sputtering quite a bit), didn’t seem like it was up to beating the pack.
Then Mary Barra, electrical engineer, replaced some sleazy MBA-type at GM’s helm (becoming in the process the first female CEO of a major automaker). A year later at the North American Auto Show, she showcased a prototype of the Chevy Bolt, a mid-price 200-mile compact BEV she said will hit the market in 2 years.
The EV world was excited, but also skeptical. Among other things, EV timelines are notoriously slippery. But less than 2 years later, in December 2016, the first Chevy Bolts were delivered in California. Not only were they mid-priced, but they have 5 reasonably-sized seats, and EPA rated their range at two-hundred-frigging-thirty-eight miles.
The skeptics and haters didn’t relent: it’s all a marketing ploy... GM isn’t serious about this car... It will be a “compliance car” (a derogatory term for a car made in minimal quantities, sold in a few states only, just to avoid paying fines). Yada yada.
Well? First, this:
Yup, available in all states within 9 months of launch. I’m don’t think any major EV launch has done it that quickly. In fact, they are already delivering Bolts in PA which according to this chart isn’t due till July. And GM also announced a planned 30,000 unit manufacturing capacity for the first year. 30k is the most any single EV model sold in the US in a single year. Nissan sold just over 30k in 2014; Tesla Model S fell just short of 30k in 2016. For both cars, it was their Year 4 on the market. There is no EV precedent for making a realistic shot at 30k US sales on Year 1. And this being GM, if demand is brisk they definitely have the capacity to ramp things up rather quickly.
In short, Bolt haters? “Compliance Car” your ass. It sold >500 units in a the few December days it was available on, and nearly 1200 units in January, a notoriously weak month for EV sales, despite being sold in CR and OR only. Our 2014 Leaf lease expires mid-2017. Nicely enough, the Bolt should be available in our state a couple of months prior to that. Barring major letdowns during test-drives (thus far, Bolt reviews have been a solid thumbs-up), or competing rabbit-out-of-hat surprises from Nissan, the Bolt will be our #1 replacement choice.
*A word about price: base-trim MSRP is $37.5k. The Bolt is (obviously) eligible for the full $7.5k Fed rebate, so the effective nationwide starting price before taxes is $30k. **And some California dealers are already offering discounts. A quick-charge port is ~$750 extra, and there’s the luxury trim for those who like such things. In many states there’s additional EV rebates, e.g., California sends you $2.5k in cash, and Washington waives the ~9.5% sales tax on the first $32k, which comes up to an even larger discount. Like any other car, you can buy in payments, or lease — but with 238 miles, why lease? Are you still waiting for more range? Despite the rapid progress from 73 miles in 2011 to 238 in 2017, from the consumer side this is not like computer power. There’s nothing for you to do with a 1000-mile car :) Personally I wouldn’t hesitate to buy the Bolt outright, after 2 consecutive Nissan Leaf leases.
Ok, a quicker run through the 4 other newsworthy new EVs.
On its Year 7 (and year 2 of Gen 2), still the best PHEV you can find. 2. Old Faithful: Generation 2 Chevy Volt PHEV.Claim to Fame: Top Driver-Satisfaction Ratings across All Mid-market Cars
EPA Range: 53 miles (gas after that). Effective* MSRP: $26-30k or less**
The Chevy Volt is one of the most misunderstood vehicles on the road. Mechanically, GM Engineering has done a superb job, earning the Volt top used-car reliability ratings and zero reports of premature battery degradation (in sharp contrast to its alter-ego the Nissan Leaf). According to Consumer Reports, the Volt is #2 most-loved by its drivers across *all* cars, second only to the Tesla Model S. That’s why the used Gen 1 Volt was one of the low-budget options I warmly recommended, besides a new or used Leaf.
But Gen 1 suffered from poor choices and lack of leadership by GM management. Above all, it lacked a clear target market. The design, sporty on the outside and cramped with 4 seats inside, suggested a Vanity car — excluding in the process utilitarian-progressive households like us, a crucial demographic in the early EV market. But since when do Vanity consumers buy Chevy? Add to that truly pitiful TV ads, clueless and uncooperative dealers, and a hostile media (with the nickname “Obamacar” often bandied about). Gen 1 sales were mediocre compared to expectations, and to the wide public the Volt became a turn-off.
Enter… the very same Mary Barra. On the same stage in which she revealed the Bolt, she also presented the Volt’s Generation 2. Volt 2 offers a nearly 50% improvement to range, a 15% improvement in the efficiency of its gas engine, a sleeker and roomier design, and a somewhat-minimal 5th seat which is perfectly good if you have a carseat/booster child. All this at an attractive price and very low ongoing ownership cost.
If you’re a single-car household with frequent long drives, or a rural household where any car needs to travel far with little charging infrastructure, the Gen 2 Volt might be the perfect choice for you. EDIT: of course, you might find the Bolt’s 238 miles sufficient in both of these cases, but the Volt is a few thousand $$ cheaper, and if you experience harsh winters (when true EV range might easily be 35% off the EPA average, see Part 1) you might still prefer the backup of a gas engine till affordable BEVs cross 300 miles or so.
The Gen 2 Volt’s 53 mile electric range (>2x the median US round-trip commute) means that on ordinary days you won’t use a drop of gas, yet you won’t have to worry about charging on out-of-town and road trips.
The public is gradually discovering the Volt now. Gen 2’s arrival boosted Volt sales again; last year the Volt has regained the #1 cumulative EV sales title from the Leaf. Dealers in many locations are offering great deals on it.
Is Toyota finally seeing the light? 3. The Empire Jumps In: Toyota Prius Prime PHEV.Claim to Fame: Toyota commits to a not-laughable Plug-in Prius.
EPA Range: 25 miles (gas after that). Effective* MSRP: $22.5-29k or less**
Over the past 3-4 years, Toyota was definitely one of the Bad Guys on the EV scene. Its leadership repeatedly spouted false anti-EV tropes, and by 2015 it had discontinued the 2 EVs it had offered: the RAV4 BEV (a compliance car sold only in California, despite evidently strong demand) and the Gen 1 Plug-in Prius, a super-minimal PHEV which the EPA rated at a measly 13 electric miles, still a generous rating because whenever you pressed the accelerator too hard, the gas engine would kick in (other PHEV makers haven’t found it difficult to put in a sufficiently powerful electric motor).
Now Toyota is starting to play catch-up with technological and market realities. The Prius Prime PHEV, available in the US since November, has a plausible (though by no means overwhelming) 25-mile range, with many top-line design choices to attract the techie crowd (e.g., a 12-inch touch screen). For a brief period, its electric fuel efficiency, 15% better than the Leaf’s, was #1 in the market.
Combine this with the fact that after a $4.5k Fed rebate (battery not large enough for the full rebate), the Prime is actually cheaper than the regular Prius — and the latter’s sales are at risk of being completely cannibalized by its newbie PHEV sibling. Maybe that’s why Toyota made the curious (and disappointing) choice of giving the Prime only 4 seats.
Anyway, there you have it, die-hard Toyota fans: a solid EV choice.
A minivan EV! 4. Enter the Big Guy: Chrysler Pacifica Hybrid PHEV Minivan.Claim to Fame: first large affordable EV offered nationwide.
EPA Range: 33 miles (gas after that). Effective* MSRP: $34.5-37.5k
Fiat-Chrysler has been an even worse EV Bad Guy than Toyota. Its CEO keeps making ridiculous anti-EV rant, and till now it had offered almost no action on the EV or hybrid front, concentrating on selling easy-to-produce gas guzzlers instead, its fleet MPG dead last among the 12 largest automakers in the US market.
Almost overnight, Chrysler may turn from dead weight to leader in one of its keynote segments, with its Pacifica PHEV minivan starting to sell nationwide this month. It’s not just the first electric minivan in the US: it is the first affordable mass-market EV offering in any large vehicle class. Add to that a 33-mile EPA range, very adequate for typical urban/suburban minivan drive-around fare, initial rave reviews, and a full $7.5k Fed rebate (gotta have a large battery to squeeze 33 electric miles out of this baby) which makes its price comparable to its ICE sibling’s upper trims — and you have a potential winner.
...Or wait, there’s more to come from this one. 5. The Stealth: Hyundai IONIQ BEV.Claim to Fame: a genuine midsize, currently #1 in fuel efficiency
EPA Range: 124 miles. Effective* MSRP: $22-25k !!!
We close this “PHEV sandwich” with a final slice of BEV. The Korean industry being a leader in EV batteries (LG Chem makes the Bolt batteries), it’s been a wonder why the country’s automakers weren’t already major players on that scene.
All this changes now, with Hyundai launching its new Ioniq platform, which will be offered in the BEV, PHEV, and ICE hybrid flavors (sorry, no plain ICE for you), the BEV coming out first. The design makes it look almost like a “normal” car, but nicer. Unlike the Nissan Leaf which is roomy enough to qualify as a midsize (in fact, seats down the Leaf still boasts more space than the Ioniq) but comes across as a compact - the Ioniq does look like a classic midsize. The Ioniq is already moving the dormant-till-now Korean EV market to new records, and decent demand is reported in Europe as well.
The Ioniq’s fuel efficiency took observers by surprise, snatching the current #1 spot from the Prius Prime (136 MPGe vs. 133; the conversion to MPG relies upon the energy content of a typical gallon of gas). This means that despite having a battery about as large as the Leaf’s, the Ioniq is good for 124 miles on average on a single charge, vs. the Leaf’s 107 miles. True, that’s barely half of the Chevy Bolt’s range, but after 2 years with an 84-mile BEV as our only family car, I can tell you 124 miles can feel like h-e-a-v-e-n.
Despite US deliveries starting right now, Hyundai hasn’t published an official MSRP yet. But given the Koreans’ tendency to underprice the Japanese in the US market, it should be somewhere in the middle or even lower end of mid-market, after the $7.5k Fed rebate. Most likely, it will be cheaper than the Bolt.
UPDATE: HYUNDAI JUST ANNOUNCED PRICES. Base trim $29.5k minus the $7.5k rebate. That makes it the cheapest among all 5 options listed here, and a good $8k cheaper than the Bolt (after adding QC, which the Ioniq has as standard I believe). This makes it an amazing bargain, definitely a close #2 on our list now! [also, turns out the ICE hybrid version is out simultaneously, with a $22.2k base-trim price similar to the BEV after incentives of which the ICE hybrid gets none]
One thing to keep in mind though, is that Hyundai promises to catch up to the Bolt soon, possibly releasing a 200-mile Ioniq on the next model year. Regardless, if ~124 miles (and a quick-charge port) are perfect for you and the price is right, why wait another year? #TheResistance needs you now.